Overview

• New York Times/Siena finds a four-way split of Mamdani 46%, Cuomo 24%, Sliwa 15%, Adams 9% among 1,284 likely voters polled Sept. 2–6 (MOE ±3.6).
• In the same survey, a hypothetical two-person contest tightens to 48% for Mamdani and 44% for Cuomo if Adams and Sliwa exit, a scenario both say they reject.
• A separate Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill poll of 600 registered voters on Sept. 7–8 shows Mamdani leading 43% to 28% over Cuomo, with Sliwa at 10% and Adams at 7% (credibility interval ±3.9).
• Emerson’s head-to-head test puts Mamdani over Cuomo 47% to 40% with 13% undecided, reinforcing that consolidation would narrow but not erase the frontrunner’s edge.
• Pollsters attribute Mamdani’s advantage to strong under‑50 support and focus on cost of living, with surveys also showing higher favorability for him and reports of Trump advisers exploring inducements to thin the field.