Overview

• Polls place Andrej Babis’s ANO first at roughly 30 percent ahead of the Oct. 3–4 parliamentary elections, short of a majority and pointing to coalition talks.
• Analysts say ANO could seek support from the far‑right SPD and possibly the far‑left Stacilo!, parties that advocate quitting the EU and NATO and stopping aid to Ukraine.
• Babis faces a rerun of an EU subsidy fraud trial after an appeals court overturned his acquittal in the €2 million Capi Hnizdo case, a process he denies as political.
• His parliamentary immunity, lifted by the outgoing chamber, would be restored after the election and could delay prosecution unless the new parliament removes it again.
• EU conflict‑of‑interest rules tied to Agrofert’s farm subsidies may force Babis to sell the conglomerate, forgo subsidies, or stay out of the cabinet, while researchers flag nearly 300 TikTok accounts pushing pro‑Russian narratives that benefit radical parties, and President Petr Pavel signals he will block a sharp turn from the Western course.