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Babiš Poised to Win Czech Vote, Setting Up Hard Choices on Coalition and Ukraine

Coalition math could pull Prague toward Orbán-style policies, weakening military aid to Kyiv.

Overview

  • Surveys put ANO near 30 percent, short of a majority, leaving Babiš dependent on fringe groups such as SPD, Stacilo! or the Motorists as mainstream parties publicly rule out joining him.
  • Analysts say a pact with radical partners would likely soften Prague’s EU and NATO posture, curbing weapons for Ukraine and potentially scrapping the Czech-led artillery‑shells initiative reported by AP.
  • An appeals court has ordered a retrial over alleged EU subsidy fraud linked to the Capi Hnízdo project, and renewed parliamentary immunity could delay proceedings unless the next chamber lifts it.
  • Transparency International says conflict‑of‑interest rules force a choice: divest Agrofert, keep the company off subsidies, or stay out of the cabinet, with possible EU moves to suspend funding if unresolved.
  • Researchers identified nearly 300 anonymous TikTok accounts amplifying pro‑Russian narratives and radical parties in late campaigning, as President Petr Pavel signals he will resist a turn from the Western course during government formation.