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Axial Seamount Unrest Persists With 2025 Eruption Possible, Timing Uncertain

Real-time sensors show continued inflation alongside intermittent quakes, leaving the timing unclear.

Overview

  • Seismicity spiked to more than 2,000 quakes in a day in June but has since eased to roughly 100 daily, and inflation rates have slowed this year.
  • Researchers say current behavior matches patterns seen before Axial’s 1998, 2011 and 2015 eruptions, yet they cannot forecast the trigger or exact timing.
  • The volcano sits about 300 miles off Oregon and roughly 4,500–4,900 feet deep, so an effusive seafloor eruption is not expected to threaten people or generate tsunamis.
  • Dozens of cabled instruments on the Regional Cabled Array are delivering continuous data, with teams at sea this month recovering and servicing sensors.
  • A distant 8.8 Kamchatka earthquake in July briefly tripped automated eruption alerts, and proposed NSF cuts to the Ocean Observatories Initiative could jeopardize future monitoring.