Overview
- Under the terms, at least two of NASA, the National Science Foundation, and the American Astronomical Society must affirm discovery of extraterrestrial intelligence or alien biological life by December 31, 2030.
- The bet is recorded on the Long Now Foundation’s Long Bets platform, which publicly documents long-range predictions with charitable stakes.
- Loeb argues the search entered a new phase in 2025, citing the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS, the Rubin Observatory’s launch, and new Galileo Project observatories.
- Shermer counters that decades of UFO and UAP claims have lacked verifiable, institutionally vetted evidence, motivating his requirement for confirmation by major scientific bodies.
- Loeb points to continued 3I/ATLAS observations, including an approach toward Jupiter reported for March, as a potential—though unproven—source of evidence, and no institutional confirmation has been reported to date.