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Auto Loan Stress Deepens as Subprime Delinquencies Hold Near Multi‑Decade Highs

Record prices plus higher borrowing costs have pushed payments to levels that strain lower‑credit borrowers most.

Overview

  • Fitch reports 6.43% of subprime auto loans are 60+ days past due, the second‑highest rate since the early 1990s and just below January’s peak.
  • Industry trackers expect more than 3 million vehicle repossessions in 2025, likely the most since the Great Recession, with repossession firms reporting heavy activity.
  • Cox Automotive data show subprime default rates hovering around 11% in September as many borrowers owe more than their cars are worth and exhaust other bill‑paying options first.
  • Overall auto delinquencies reached 3.8% in June 2024, the highest since 2010, as average new‑car prices top $50,000, loan rates run near 7% for new and ~11% for used, and repair and insurance costs climb.
  • VantageScore finds delinquencies rising across income tiers with faster absolute increases among prime borrowers, though prime delinquency remains below 0.5% and analysts see limited systemic risk given auto debt’s small share of household balances.