Overview

• ABS data show the monthly CPI rose to 2.8% year on year in July from 1.9% in June, well above the 2.3% consensus, with prices up 0.9% on the month.
• Electricity costs leapt about 13% as NSW and ACT households missed July bill rebates and annual price reviews kicked in; rebates will be reflected in August, pointing to a partial unwind.
• Underlying inflation firmed, with the trimmed mean rising to 2.7% and the CPI measure excluding volatile items and holiday travel lifting to 3.2%.
• Markets pared the probability of a September rate cut and leaned toward November, as the ASX 200 dipped and the Australian dollar briefly strengthened after the release.
• Officials and economists cautioned that the monthly series is volatile and goods‑heavy, with the ABS planning a broader monthly CPI by November and the RBA giving more weight to quarterly trimmed mean readings.