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Australia’s GDP Rises Just 0.2% as Per Capita Output Declines

Slow 0.2% Q1 growth driven by extreme weather has traders betting on a July rate cut

Residential properties are seen near the Sydney Harbour Bridge in Sydney, Australia, March 12, 2025. REUTERS/Hollie Adams/File Photo
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People walk outside a shopping mall in the Sydney Central Business District, in Sydney, Australia, May 14, 2024. REUTERS/Jaimi Joy/File Photo

Overview

  • The 0.2% quarterly gain fell short of the 0.4% economists expected, leaving annual GDP growth at 1.3%.
  • GDP per capita dropped 0.2% in the March quarter after a modest December uptick, marking a return to per person contraction.
  • Household spending, which accounts for over half of economic output, grew just 0.4% in Q1 and slowed further to 0.1% in April.
  • Public spending exerted its largest drag on growth since late 2017 as major infrastructure projects wrapped up.
  • Markets now price in over an 80% probability of an RBA rate cut in July to support a subdued economy.