Overview

• About 1.5 million people could face coastal inundation by 2050, rising to more than 3 million by 2090 under higher‑warming pathways.
• Under a 3°C scenario, heat‑related deaths are projected to surge, including an estimated 444% increase in Sydney and 423% in Darwin.
• Direct disaster costs are forecast to reach about A$40 billion per year by 2050, with cumulative property value losses of roughly A$611 billion by mid‑century and A$770 billion by 2090.
• The report finds risks will be cascading, compounding and concurrent across health systems, infrastructure, primary industries and ecosystems, with severe threats to coral reefs and some forests.
• The government released a National Adaptation Plan alongside the assessment, faces parliamentary scrutiny of the findings, and says both will inform a new 2035 emissions target expected this week.