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Australia's Core Inflation Falls to RBA Target, Rate Cut Expected in May

Trimmed mean inflation dropped to 2.9% in the March quarter, marking its first return to the Reserve Bank's target range in over three years.

People walk through a shopping mall in Sydney, Australia, October 12, 2021.  REUTERS/Loren Elliott/File Photo
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Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the latest inflation figures are ‘proof’ Labor’s economic plan is working. NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Overview

  • Headline inflation remained steady at 2.4% annually in the March quarter, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
  • Core inflation, measured by the trimmed mean, fell to 2.9%, its lowest level since December 2021 and back within the Reserve Bank's 2–3% target range.
  • Electricity prices surged 16.3% in the quarter due to the expiration of government rebates, while housing, education, and food also contributed to inflation.
  • Markets and economists widely anticipate a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the Reserve Bank's May 20 meeting, with additional cuts likely later in 2025.
  • Treasurer Jim Chalmers highlighted the inflation data as evidence of responsible economic management ahead of the May 3 federal election.