Overview

• From 1 October, first‑home buyers can purchase with a 5% deposit under the expanded First Home Guarantee, which removes income and place limits and lifts price caps to $1.5m in Sydney, $950k in Melbourne, $1m in Brisbane and $850k in Perth.
• National dwelling values rose 0.8% in September to a median $857,280, with Cotality reporting broad gains across capitals as listings remain unusually low.
• Treasury projects only a 0.5% price lift over six years, but other forecasts point to larger near‑term increases, including a 10% rise in year one cited by the Insurance Council of Australia.
• A 5% deposit implies roughly 95% loan‑to‑value borrowing, which analysts say raises lifetime interest costs and negative‑equity risk even as some lenders court participants with lower variable rates.
• The RBA governor says the core problem is a structural supply deficit, noting dwelling approvals fell 6% in August and warning meaningful supply relief is unlikely within two years.