Overview
- ABS data show the wage price index rose 0.8% in the September quarter, holding annual growth at 3.4%.
- Public-sector pay accelerated to 3.8% year on year as state government increases drove 82% of the sector’s quarterly rise, while private-sector growth slowed to 3.2%.
- The public sector outpaced the private sector for a third straight quarter, reinforcing a widening divergence in pay momentum.
- October labour figures point to a still-tight jobs market with employment rebounding and the jobless rate easing to about 4.3%.
- A September inflation spike has compressed real pay gains, and markets now price only about a 50% chance of one more RBA cut in May 2026.