Overview
- The Centre for Population’s 2025 Statement forecasts net overseas migration of about 260,000 in 2026, roughly half the level seen during the 2023 surge.
- The decline reflects more departures as post‑COVID temporary visas expire, with forecasting still uncertain according to senior officials.
- Fertility is projected to reach a new low near 1.42–1.45 children per woman in 2026, with a gradual recovery expected toward 2031–32.
- Western Australia is projected to grow fastest while Tasmania and South Australia lag, with the median age rising to 40.2 by 2035–36 and dementia now the leading cause of death.
- Long‑term projections show Sydney and Melbourne exceeding 8 million in the 2050s, with Melbourne becoming the largest city in the 2060s.