Overview

• Economists now expect 0.1–0.3% GDP growth for the March quarter, marking the slowest increase outside the pandemic since 1990-91.
• Australian Bureau of Statistics data show a 0.4% drop in public demand that subtracted 0.1 percentage point from headline GDP growth.
• The OECD has downgraded its 2025 growth forecast for Australia to 1.8% but sees expansion accelerating to 2.2% in 2026 as interest rates ease.
• Analysts warn that stagnant output per person could push Australia back into a per capita recession after a one-quarter recovery.
• Rate markets assign a 78% probability to a 25-basis-point RBA rate cut in July in reaction to the underwhelming start to the year.