Overview
- The BOM's May forecast says daytime and night temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia.
- Rainfall for June–August is more likely to be below average for large areas, with the strongest dry signals in south‑west Western Australia and parts of the south‑east.
- The agency says El Niño is increasingly probable but has not been declared because required ocean and atmosphere thresholds remain unmet.
- The IOD is forecast as neutral by the BOM through early spring though some international models show a possible positive IOD that would amplify dry impacts.
- Parts of New South Wales and eastern Tasmania are already in severe rainfall deficit, raising short‑term risks for agriculture, water supplies and the snow season if dry trends continue.