Particle.news
Download on the App Store

Australia Inflation Hits 3.8% in First Complete Monthly CPI as Markets Pare RBA Cut Bets

An upside surprise driven by electricity plus housing lowered market odds of near‑term RBA easing.

Overview

  • The ABS reported headline CPI at 3.8% year on year in October, above the 3.6% consensus, with the trimmed mean at 3.3%.
  • Electricity prices rose about 37% from a year earlier after state rebates expired, while housing inflation climbed to 5.9% and services to 3.9%.
  • Traders lifted the Australian dollar and cut the probability of an RBA rate reduction in May 2026 to 27% from 40%, with bond futures falling.
  • The release marked the ABS’s first complete monthly CPI, which the RBA says can be volatile, so policymakers still lean on quarterly readings.
  • Treasurer Jim Chalmers said a decision on extending household energy bill rebates will come in the next few weeks.