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Australia Faces Warmer‑Than‑Average Spring After Record Warm Winter

A developing El Niño and unusually warm ocean temperatures are lifting near‑term highs and increasing bushfire risk this spring.

Overview

  • Melbourne has officially recorded its warmest winter on record with a mean temperature of 12.8°C, officials confirmed on Tuesday.
  • The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts a warmer‑than‑average spring with several cities set to see near‑summer highs in the coming days, including daily 20°C minimums in Sydney and weekend highs near 30°C in east coast capitals.
  • Senior meteorologists say a developing El Niño combined with anomalously warm sea‑surface temperatures and persistent high pressure are amplifying baseline warming driven by climate change.
  • National and state fire authorities have warned that the warm, drier start to spring raises bushfire risk across parts of Victoria, New South Wales, South Australia and Queensland.
  • The warm winter already shortened the snow season, forcing early resort closures and a major write‑down at Thredbo, and communities and farmers are weighing near‑term benefits from winter rain against the risk of a drier, hotter spring.