Overview
- Retired rear admiral Peter Briggs told a Canberra security forum that AUKUS is a wasteful folly and likely to fail, warning Australia risks losing its submarine capability if it waits for boats that may never arrive.
- Hugh Jeffrey, a deputy secretary in Australia’s Defence Department, called quitting the pact reckless and said the program has made real progress, adding that President Donald Trump has endorsed pressing ahead.
- Briggs argued the United States will lack surplus Virginia‑class submarines in the early 2030s, pointing to slow output that would make a presidential certification of no loss to US capability hard to meet.
- US production remains far below targets at about 1.2 Virginia‑class boats per year against a goal near 2.33, with Columbia‑class construction and maintenance backlogs tying up workers, dry docks, and parts.
- A 2025 Pentagon review under an America First lens raised doubts about transferring subs and shifted the pact’s tone, even as Australia keeps paying in, including a reported $798 million to boost US yards and hold its place.