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Audits Say Italy’s 2026 Tax Cut Skews to Higher Earners, With Compliance Risks

Parliamentary hearings describe a top‑heavy Irpef benefit alongside revenue risks from a new amnesty plus short‑rental tax changes.

Overview

  • Istat reports that just over 14 million taxpayers would receive an average €230 each from the Irpef change and that more than 85% of the resources go to the richest fifth of families, with gains under 1% of household income across all groups.
  • The Parliamentary Budget Office estimates average annual savings of €408 for executives versus €23 for workers, with about half of the tax relief accruing to those earning over €48,000 and a steady‑state Irpef revenue loss of roughly €2.7 billion.
  • Bank of Italy warns the new tax amnesty would cut 2026 revenue by about €1.5 billion and around €0.5 billion on average in the following two years, noting past amnesties recovered about half of sums due and that overall inequality effects remain modest.
  • The Court of Auditors says lifting the flat tax on short‑term rentals to 26% could encourage undeclared lettings and notes that 44% of Irpef‑cut resources are tied to incomes between €50,000 and €200,000.
  • Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti defends the package as protection for middle‑income taxpayers, citing a maximum individual gain of €440 and an average of about €218 for roughly a third of taxpayers.