Overview

• Vilela leads all first-round tests with roughly 42% to 43% of voting intentions, ahead of Wilder Morais, Marconi Perillo and Adriana Accorsi depending on the scenario.
• In simulated runoffs he beats every tested rival by large margins, with Vilela between 53% and 59% versus opponents near 23% to 26%.
• An endorsements scenario shows Vilela at 43.5% with Caiado’s backing, while Wilder Morais with Bolsonaro and Adriana Accorsi with Lula each register about 18% to 19%.
• The AtlasIntel poll was conducted online from September 17 to 23 via random digital recruitment, with a two‑point margin of error and 95% confidence.
• National outlets including CartaCapital, ISTOÉ and Poder360 reported the findings on September 26.