Overview

• On September 10, the National Hurricane Center said no tropical cyclone formation is expected in the Atlantic for the next week, an uncommon lull at the statistical peak.
• So far this season, six named storms have formed and only one became a hurricane (Erin), leaving activity behind typical early‑September pace.
• Meteorologists cite dry, stable air including Saharan dust, elevated wind shear, tropical upper‑tropospheric troughs, and the current Madden–Julian Oscillation phase as key inhibitors.
• Sea surface temperatures remain warmer than normal, and NOAA and Colorado State University caution the lull can reverse quickly with a potential uptick later in September and October.
• A shutout on the peak date is rare, last noted in 2016, and records show a substantial share of seasonal activity often occurs after September 10 despite current model uncertainty.