Overview
- As of mid-September this year, no storms in the Atlantic basin have reached hurricane strength, marking the longest stretch without a hurricane since modern satellite records began in 1966.
- Meteorologists point to a strengthening El Niño as the main cause because it raises upper-level wind shear over the Atlantic, a wind pattern that tears apart organizing storms and makes hurricane formation harder.
- The season has produced five named tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard—but none intensified into hurricanes and basin-wide energy measures remain unusually low.
- Short-term monitoring focuses on a trough southeast of Bermuda that forecasters rate at about 0% chance of development over two days and roughly 40% over seven days, meaning late-season development remains possible.
- Officials note two conditional milestones to watch: if no hurricane forms by Sept. 22 the year would approach a record set in 1941, and if none form by Nov. 30 2026 could be only the third year on record with no Atlantic hurricanes; media outlets frame the lull differently, with some outlets emphasizing meteorology and others using the quiet season for political commentary.