Overview
- Outflows from the Atlantic low 'Bruna', which arrive Monday, will push rain and stronger winds into southern and then central and northern Germany.
- Official forecasts from the Deutscher Wetterdienst and regional services currently expect typical 48‑hour totals of about 20–40 litres per square metre in parts of the south and southwest.
- Some single model runs show heavier outliers of 50–80 litres per square metre in the southwest, but meteorologists warn those extremes are low‑probability compared with ensemble guidance.
- The DWD and Bavaria's Hochwassernachrichtendienst do not currently expect a nationwide flood emergency but emphasise that the situation is evolving and will be updated as models converge.
- A rare early stratospheric major warming increases the chance of northerly or easterly cold flows around the first Advent while a record‑strong El Niño pushes seasonal models toward a milder, wetter winter, creating competing influences for late‑November weather.