Overview

• Climatology pinpoints an eight‑week core from mid‑August to mid‑October for most Atlantic tropical activity, with September 10 the single day of highest historical likelihood.
• AccuWeather’s Alex DaSilva warns of a high risk for tropical development off the west coast of Africa in the latter half of this week, noting dry air could hinder early growth before any surviving system strengthens quickly.
• Yucatán’s civil protection agency reports six named systems so far in 2025—five tropical storms and Hurricane Erin, which reached Category 5—none posing a threat to the state.
• Procivy projects additional activity through season’s end, expecting 2–4 more tropical storms, 3–4 Category 1–2 hurricanes, and 2–3 major hurricanes, and says monitoring will remain constant.
• Yucatán’s cold‑front season begins September 15 with about 19 fronts projected through spring 2026, and officials anticipate a warmer‑than‑normal winter influenced by La Niña.