Overview
- The Atlantic has produced five named storms this season but no hurricanes, and the basin will set a modern satellite-era record if no hurricane forms by Friday, Sept. 11.
- The National Hurricane Center forecasts no tropical development in the Atlantic over the next seven days, making a late first hurricane increasingly likely.
- Accumulated Cyclone Energy, a metric that sums a season's tropical storm strength and duration, sits near a record low of about 4.4 through early September.
- The eastern and central Pacific tell a different story with roughly 15 named storms and multiple hurricanes this season, including Hurricane Lowell which brought heavy rain and hurricane-force winds near Kauai.
- Forecasters say the quiet early season stems from a strong El Niño that raises upper-level wind shear plus persistent Saharan dust and cooler waters in the Main Development Region, and they warn that the season runs through Nov. 30 so a single late storm could still cause major damage.