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At COP30, UN Signals 1.5°C Overshoot Likely as Paris Deal Turns 10

Delegates are pivoting to plans for managing an early‑2030s overshoot, with pressure to accelerate cuts that speed a return to 1.5°C.

Overview

  • The International Energy Agency’s latest analysis finds every pathway it assessed temporarily exceeds 1.5°C around 2030.
  • At a leaders’ session in Belém, António Guterres said a temporary overshoot in the early 2030s cannot be avoided.
  • UNFCCC chief Simon Stiell cited measurable progress, including national actions and growth in decarbonization markets, yet warned that major work remains.
  • Negotiators are weighing contingency or second‑best policies within the Paris framework that requires all countries to set and implement targets.
  • A 30‑country Ipsos poll finds 49% view COP meetings as mostly symbolic, compared with 34% who expect concrete results.