Overview
- New England hits the break on a 10-game win streak at 11-2, with The Athletic putting their Super Bowl win chance at 16% and ESPN’s FPI projecting a 15.3% shot to reach the game and 6.2% to win it.
- The offense has reached the red zone frequently but has converted only about 51.1% of trips into touchdowns, dropping to 33.3% over the last three games with four giveaways inside the 20 this season.
- Defensively, opponents have scored touchdowns on roughly 73% of red-zone drives against New England, the worst rate in the NFL, even though the Patriots have allowed the fewest red-zone opportunities.
- A stagnant rushing attack averages 3.9 yards per carry with pronounced short‑yardage and goal‑line failures, and outside analysis points to using more outside‑zone concepts as a potential tweak.
- Pressure has been inconsistent with 27 sacks and a 36% pass‑rush win rate, helping yield only a +0.1 turnover margin as takeaways lag and the once‑stingy run defense shows recent slippage.