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ASX Near Flat as Traders Brace for RBA Hold on Melbourne Cup Day

Investors look to Governor Michele Bullock’s guidance for signals on the timing of any rate cuts.

Overview

  • The ASX200 added 0.15% to close at 8,894.8 on Monday, with futures modestly lower ahead of the 2:30pm AEDT decision and the subsequent press briefing.
  • Last week’s ABS inflation surprise at 3.2% year-on-year has traders pricing little-to-no chance of an immediate reduction in the cash rate.
  • Bank shares advanced after Westpac reported $6.9 billion in FY2025 net profit, lifting the sector alongside gains in Commonwealth Bank, ANZ and NAB.
  • Energy names rose on reports OPEC+ would pause planned production increases in early 2026, while healthcare and property lagged.
  • Global sentiment was supported by AI leaders as Nvidia and Amazon climbed, Iren’s shares were set to benefit from a reported US$9.7b AI capacity deal with Microsoft, and Amazon announced a multi-year US$38b cloud agreement with OpenAI.