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2mo ago

Asteroid 2024 YR4's Impact Probability Slightly Increases, Astronomers Continue Monitoring

The newly discovered asteroid has a 2.3% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, though experts expect the risk to decrease with further observations.

Scientists are keeping a close eye on 2024 YR4. (Artist's impression of an asteroid. Elements of this image furnished by NASA.)
JAXA's Hayabusa-2 probe captures an asteroid roughly 300 million kilometers from Earth from Coober Pedy in South Australia on December 6, 2020.
A placard hangs on the wall during the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) Technology Media Workshop Telecon Briefing and tour at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland, on September 12, 2022, ahead of the September 26th project test mission.
Image

Overview

  • Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered in December 2024, has an estimated size of 130-300 feet, large enough to cause significant regional damage if it impacts Earth.
  • Current calculations show a 2.3% probability of the asteroid striking Earth on December 22, 2032, up from 1.4% earlier, but this likelihood is expected to change as more data is collected.
  • Astronomers explain that initial risk assessments for near-Earth asteroids often rise before being refined to show a lower or zero probability of impact.
  • International space organizations, including NASA and the ESA, are closely tracking the asteroid and have activated asteroid response groups to assess potential mitigation strategies if needed.
  • The asteroid will remain observable through April 2025, after which it will move out of view until it reappears in 2028, allowing for further trajectory refinements.