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Asteroid 2024 YR4 Ruled Out as Earth Threat, Moon Impact Risk Rises

NASA confirms asteroid 2024 YR4 poses no danger to Earth, but lunar impact probability in 2032 has increased to 3.8%, raising concerns for space operations.

This image shows Webb’s recent observation of the asteroid 2024 YR4 using both its NIRCam (Near-Infrared Camera) and MIRI (Mid-Infrared Instrument). Data from NIRCam shows reflected light, while the MIRI observations show thermal light.
A stock image shows an asteroid whizzing past the Earth as seen from space.
The asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 2% chance of striking the moon in 2032.

Overview

  • Asteroid 2024 YR4, once considered a potential Earth threat with a 3% impact probability, now has a near-zero chance of hitting the planet in 2032.
  • The James Webb Space Telescope determined the asteroid measures 174-220 feet, making it the smallest object ever observed by the telescope.
  • The Moon faces a 3.8% chance of impact from the asteroid in 2032, up from 1.7% earlier this year, which could generate debris affecting human space operations.
  • Observations revealed the asteroid's fast spin and rocky surface, lacking fine-grained sand, offering valuable insights for planetary defense strategies.
  • NASA plans further observations in May 2025 before the asteroid becomes too faint for ground-based telescopes until its return in 2028.