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Asteroid 2024 YR4 Ruled Out as Earth Threat, Lunar Impact Risk Rises

Recent observations confirm no danger to Earth while refining a nearly 4% chance of the asteroid colliding with the Moon.

An artist’s illustration of 2024 YR4. Credit: W. M. Keck Observatory/Adam Makarenko
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Overview

  • Asteroid 2024 YR4, initially flagged as a high-risk object for Earth in 2032, has been reclassified as non-threatening to the planet.
  • Enhanced data from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) revealed the asteroid's trajectory now carries a 3.8% chance of impacting the Moon.
  • The asteroid, discovered in December 2024, is estimated to be 53-67 meters in size, with a rapid rotation period of under 20 minutes.
  • If a lunar impact occurs, it could create a visible flash and a 1-kilometer-wide crater, providing a valuable scientific opportunity to study lunar geology.
  • Further JWST observations planned for late April or early May aim to refine the asteroid's orbit and physical characteristics.