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Asteroid 2024 YR4 Poses Small Risk of Lunar Impact

New observations show the asteroid, once feared to hit Earth, has a 3.8-4% chance of striking the Moon while revealing its unusual shape and rapid rotation.

Overview

  • Asteroid 2024 YR4, first discovered in December 2024, was initially flagged as a potential Earth impact threat for 2032 but is now confirmed to pose no danger to the planet.
  • Refined trajectory models indicate a 3.8-4% chance of the asteroid colliding with the Moon, though the probability remains low.
  • The asteroid, approximately 60 meters in diameter, has a flattened, hockey puck-like shape and rotates every 20 minutes, challenging typical asteroid models.
  • Advanced observations using telescopes such as JWST, Gemini South, and Keck have provided detailed insights into its silicate-rich composition and orbital path.
  • Scientists believe the asteroid originated in the main asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter, with gravitational interactions pushing it into its current near-Earth orbit.

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