Asteroid 2024 YR4 Poses Small Risk of Earth Impact in 2032

Scientists are exploring potential deflection strategies as the asteroid's trajectory is refined, with the risk of a direct hit currently estimated at less than 2 percent.

Asteroid 2024 YR4, measuring 50-90 meters wide, has a 1.5 percent chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032, though the probability may fluctuate as its trajectory is further studied.
If it impacts Earth, the asteroid could cause city-level devastation comparable to a large nuclear explosion, but it is not large enough to cause global extinction.
NASA’s successful 2022 DART mission demonstrated the feasibility of asteroid deflection, providing a potential model for addressing YR4 if necessary.
Experts are considering various methods to deflect the asteroid, including kinetic impact, ion thrusters, gravity tractors, and potentially nuclear devices for larger objects.
The asteroid also has a 0.3 percent chance of colliding with the Moon, which could impact future lunar operations depending on the location of the impact.