Overview

• NASA’s refined trajectory models have ruled out any Earth impact by asteroid 2024 YR4 after its initial high Torino Scale rating.
• March 2025 James Webb Space Telescope imagery has constrained the asteroid’s diameter to 175–220 feet and sharpened its orbital path.
• NASA’s Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies now estimates a 4.3% probability of a December 22, 2032 lunar collision.
• A Moon impact could release energy equivalent to several megatons of TNT, excavate a crater up to a kilometer wide and eject debris toward satellites and future lunar missions.
• Observers plan to resume tracking in 2028 when 2024 YR4 reappears from behind the Sun to update impact and debris risk assessments.