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last mo.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 Poses No Earth Threat but Moon Impact Risk Rises

Refined observations confirm the asteroid's size and trajectory, with a 3.8% chance of a Moon impact in 2032 offering unique research opportunities.

This image shows Webb’s recent observation of the asteroid 2024 YR4 using both its NIRCam (Near-Infrared Camera) and MIRI (Mid-Infrared Instrument). Data from NIRCam shows reflected light, while the MIRI observations show thermal light.
A stock image shows an asteroid whizzing past the Earth as seen from space.
The asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 2% chance of striking the moon in 2032.

Overview

  • Asteroid 2024 YR4, once considered a significant threat to Earth, now has a near-zero probability of impacting the planet in 2032.
  • The likelihood of the asteroid striking the Moon on December 22, 2032, has increased to 3.8%, up from 1.7% in February.
  • The James Webb Space Telescope confirmed the asteroid's size at approximately 60 meters, about the height of a 15-story building, and revealed a surface dominated by fist-sized rocks.
  • A potential Moon impact could provide valuable scientific data for planetary defense, without altering the Moon's orbit around Earth.
  • Further observations using the James Webb Space Telescope are planned for May 2025 before the asteroid becomes unobservable until 2028.