Overview

• Astronomers now calculate a 4.3% probability that the 60-meter asteroid will impact the Moon on December 22, 2032, after ruling out a direct Earth collision.
• Simulations by Dr. Paul Wiegert show the lunar strike could carve a 0.6-mile-wide crater and eject up to 10,000 tonnes of debris at speeds exceeding 29,000 mph.
• Emergency observations with the James Webb Space Telescope cut the asteroid’s Earth-impact odds to 0.00081% and refined its projected path toward the Moon.
• Models suggest Earth’s gravity could funnel as much as 10% of the ejecta into low-Earth orbit, risking up to a decade’s worth of satellite damage within days.
• Space agencies and researchers are evaluating deflection and mitigation options—such as kinetic impactors and gravity tractors—to address the potential lunar threat.