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Asteroid 2024 YR4 No Threat to Earth as Lunar Impact Chance Climbs

Refined orbit data assigns a four percent lunar impact chance, highlighting urgent development of planetary defense tests, detection systems, observation missions.

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Overview

  • June 2025 observations by ESA and NASA refined 2024 YR4’s trajectory, shifting its risk to a projected lunar encounter in 2032.
  • NASA’s 2022 DART mission successfully altered Dimorphos’s orbit and ESA’s Hera probe will arrive in 2026 to analyze the impact crater and refine deflection methods.
  • Space agencies now track nearly 38,500 near-Earth objects and plan new wide-field telescopes, including a Sicilian ground-based hunter, to spot sunward asteroids.
  • In 2029 the 350-meter asteroid Apophis will fly within 32,000 kilometers of Earth, offering a rare chance to study its composition and behavior.
  • Historical events such as the dinosaur-extinction impact, 1908 Tunguska blast and 2013 Chelyabinsk airburst underscore NEO dangers and drive global initiatives like UN Asteroid Day.