Overview
- Analysts currently put the chance of a 2024 YR4 impact on the Moon on December 22, 2032 at about 4%, based on limited observations of the 53–67 m object.
- JWST has two brief observation opportunities in February that scientists say could provide the last critical data before Earth-based telescopes can see the asteroid again in 2028.
- Researchers estimate an 80% likelihood that the February data will push the lunar-impact probability below 1%, with a smaller roughly 5% chance it could rise to around 30%.
- Impact modeling suggests a strike could excavate a crater about 0.6 miles wide and eject roughly 10,000 tonnes of lunar material, some of which could be directed toward Earth and threaten satellites; officials say people on the ground are not at risk.
- Deflection options such as a DART-style kinetic impactor would need multi-year lead time with launches by about 2030, and ESA says it currently has no mission budgeted to surveil or deflect 2024 YR4.