Overview

• After May observations by the James Webb Space Telescope, NASA raised YR4’s lunar impact probability from 3.8 percent to 4.3 percent.
• Asteroid 2024 YR4 spans roughly 174 to 220 feet in diameter, making it comparable to a 10-story building.
• Initial projections briefly gave the asteroid a 3.1 percent chance of striking Earth before further analyses ruled out any risk to our planet.
• A possible Moon collision on December 22, 2032, would carve a new lunar crater without altering the Moon’s orbit or threatening Earth.
• Researchers will resume tracking YR4 when it returns to view in 2028 to refine its path and update impact assessments.