Asteroid 2024 YR4 Has a Small Chance of Hitting Earth in 2032

Astronomers estimate a 1.6% probability of impact, with further observations expected to refine the asteroid's trajectory.

Asteroid 2024 YR4, measuring between 130 and 330 feet in diameter, was first detected on December 27, 2024, by the ATLAS telescope in Chile.
Current calculations suggest a 1.6% chance of the asteroid striking Earth on December 22, 2032, though this probability is expected to decrease with further observations.
If an impact occurs, it could cause city-level destruction or a significant tsunami, similar to the Tunguska event of 1908, which flattened 830 square miles of forest in Siberia.
The asteroid will pass Earth again in 2028, offering astronomers another opportunity to refine its orbit and determine if a collision is possible.
NASA and international planetary defense teams are prepared to deploy mitigation strategies, such as the DART-tested kinetic impactor method, if necessary.