Overview

• Observations from the James Webb Space Telescope in May raised the odds of a December 2032 lunar impact by 2024 YR4 to 4.3 percent.
• Researchers say the collision would unleash energy comparable to a large nuclear explosion and carve a roughly 1 km-wide crater.
• Simulations project up to 100 million kilograms of lunar material could be ejected, with about 10 percent captured by Earth’s gravity.
• Fragmented debris traveling at tens of thousands of metres per second could destroy satellites and spark a vivid meteor shower days after impact.
• The asteroid will not be observable again until 2028, giving agencies time to evaluate potential deflection or planetary defense missions.