Overview
- Updated orbital solutions rule out an Earth strike and put the lunar impact probability for December 2032 at roughly 4 to 4.3 percent.
- NASA’s acting planetary defense officer said there are no plans to deflect or otherwise interfere with 2024 YR4, with JWST observations slated for early 2026 to tighten the orbit and potentially drop the impact odds.
- A new arXiv preprint by a team including NASA-affiliated researchers judges conventional deflection impractical for YR4 and outlines ‘robust disruption’ options, including nuclear devices, with proposed launch windows in late 2029 to late 2031.
- The paper stresses a reconnaissance mission to determine the asteroid’s mass and structure, noting the best launch opportunities begin in late 2028 and leave only about three years for development.
- If a lunar impact occurred, models suggest ejecta could raise micrometeoroid flux in low-Earth orbit up to 1,000 times for several days, threatening satellites and astronauts, and some researchers estimate multi‑megaton energy release and a large new crater.