Overview

• Orbital recalculations have ruled out any risk of 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in 2032, overturning an earlier 3.1% impact estimate.
• Updated data assigns the asteroid a 4% probability of striking the Moon’s near side in 2032, where it could excavate a crater visible from Earth.
• The 2022 DART experiment successfully shifted the orbit of Dimorphos, and ESA’s Hera probe is set to analyze the collision site to inform future deflection missions.
• Space agencies have cataloged nearly 38,500 near-Earth objects and plan advanced telescopes to detect sunward asteroids currently obscured from view.
• Beyond defense, asteroid studies aim to uncover clues about the solar system’s formation and the delivery of organic molecules that may have seeded life.