Overview

• Asteroid 2024 YR4, measuring 53–67 m across and discovered in December 2024 by Chile’s ATLAS system, briefly carried up to a 3% chance of Earth impact before orbit refinements ruled that out by March 2025.
• As of June 2025, the chance of a lunar collision on 22 December 2032 stands at about 4% and will remain unchanged until the asteroid returns to view in mid-2028.
• A potential strike on the Moon could launch debris into Earth orbit, posing risks to satellites and other space infrastructure.
• 2024 YR4 was first detected after its closest approach because it came from the Sun-ward direction, exposing an optical blind spot that also hid the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor.
• ESA’s planned NEOMIR mission, slated for the early 2030s at the Sun–Earth Lagrange Point, will use infrared surveys to close current detection gaps near the Sun.