Overview
- At a BJP meeting on December 27, Himanta Biswa Sarma said Muslims of Bangladesh origin could constitute around 40% of Assam’s population by the 2027 Census and warned of political dominance if their share exceeds 50%.
- In a separate TV interview a day earlier, he asserted the Muslim share is now roughly 40%, describing a steady rise he attributes to cross-border infiltration over decades.
- He outlined a back-of-the-envelope method: Muslims were 34% in 2011, which he extrapolated to about 38% in 2021 and near 40% in 2025, while noting no official religion-wise Census update exists.
- Sarma distinguished between indigenous Assamese Muslims and those he terms Bangladesh-origin, citing a 2011 baseline of 31% for the latter after excluding about 3% indigenous Muslims.
- He linked the issue to ongoing eviction operations and referenced the 2019 Assam NRC that left about 1.9 million people off the rolls, as analysts predict migration will feature prominently in the 2026 state election campaign.