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Assam CM Escalates Demographic Warning, Says Bangladesh-Origin Muslim Share Near 40% Ahead of 2026 Polls

He is using a projection not backed by new census data to cast the election as a fight over identity.

Overview

  • Addressing the BJP’s state executive meeting in Guwahati, Himanta Biswa Sarma asserted that people of Bangladeshi origin now account for roughly 40% of Assam’s population and said they could soon determine outcomes in most constituencies.
  • He warned that if their share crossed 50%, there could be attempts to “make Assam a part of Bangladesh,” framing the 2026 assembly race as a civilisational battle to protect culture and land.
  • Sarma grounded his estimate in Census 2011, which put Muslims at 34% statewide; he excluded about 3% indigenous Muslims and projected a roughly four-point increase per census cycle to reach near 40% by the 2027 count.
  • He linked the issue to security by invoking the Siliguri Corridor, citing the lynching of Dipu Das in Bangladesh, and questioning the wartime loyalties of Bengali-origin Muslims he described as settlers.
  • He highlighted government actions by claiming over 1.45 lakh bighas of alleged encroachment had been cleared through evictions, while acknowledging there is no 2021 census release to verify current demographic shares.