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ASML Under Scrutiny Ahead of Q3 Earnings

Investors seek clarity on order intake, near-term revenue and capacity plans to judge whether ASML's premium valuation can absorb weaker AI chip spending.

A general view of the ASML kiosk at the Semicon India 2026, an annual semiconductor conference, in New Delhi, India, September 18, 2026. REUTERS/Bhawika Chhabra

Overview

  • ASML is set to release third-quarter 2026 results and hold an investor call on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, an event investors expect will clarify orders, revenue and management outlook.
  • U.S.-listed shares slid in early trading on October 12 as investors weighed the upcoming report and the sustainability of AI-driven capital spending.
  • Management has already raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a €43–45 billion range with higher gross-margin targets and plans to add about 30% low-NA EUV capacity in 2027 on top of roughly 65 units shipped in 2026.
  • ASML combines large, lumpy equipment sales with a growing recurring revenue stream from servicing and upgrading its installed fleet, which generated €2,762 million in Q2 2026 and helps smooth cash flow between big machine deliveries.
  • The stock trades at a steep premium of roughly 41 times forward earnings, which heightens sensitivity to execution risks such as order timing, capacity scaling, export limits and currency swings, so investors will watch Q3 order intake and management guidance closely.