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ASML Tops Q3 Orders, Sees Strong Q4, Flags 2026 China Sales Drop

Management said resilient AI spending should offset a sharp China pullback next year.

Overview

  • Net bookings reached €5.4 billion, beating estimates, with Q3 net sales at €7.5 billion and net income about €2.12 billion.
  • The company guided Q4 2025 revenue to €9.2–€9.8 billion and targets roughly 15% full-year sales growth with a 51%–53% gross margin.
  • ASML expects China revenue to decline significantly in 2026 but does not expect total 2026 net sales to fall below 2025, with a fuller outlook due in January.
  • Executives cited broadening AI-driven demand across leading-edge logic and advanced memory, while long tool lead times and fab build cycles constrain how fast capacity can expand.
  • Shares rose after the update, and peer results such as TSMC’s record quarter and higher 2025 growth forecast reinforced expectations for durable AI-related tool demand.