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ASML Says Planned Capacity Will Fall Short of AI‑Led Demand Through 2028

The company is using short‑term assembly and upgrade fixes, larger down payments and an accelerated factory build that is due in 2029 to try to narrow the gap.

Overview

  • ASML acknowledged it will not have enough extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines to meet customer demand in 2027 and 2028 and has not set a new firm capacity target.
  • Company management said it will try near‑term measures such as faster assembly, software and hardware upgrades to installed tools, and selling higher‑throughput models while considering roughly a dozen extra EUV units beyond prior plans.
  • Customers are extending their equipment forecasts into 2029 and 2030 because they expect continued large AI investments, but ASML is pausing formal acceptance of far‑future orders while it assesses feasibility and customer readiness.
  • ASML reported strong third‑quarter profit and raised full‑year revenue guidance, yet investors are re‑pricing risk as debates grow over how long AI‑driven capital spending will stay high and how customers will finance big projects.
  • Long lead times, a concentrated supply chain for critical optics and export limits that affect China sales mean factory expansion in Eindhoven will not help until 2029, which could force chipmakers to delay plans or pay more for priority access.