ASML Raises 2026 Guidance as AI and Memory Demand Drives EUV Orders

Overview

• In its latest quarter ASML reported EUR 9.3 billion in revenue and EUR 2.9 billion in net income and raised 2026 revenue guidance to EUR 43–45 billion.
• Customers are ordering more EUV systems because AI accelerators require denser chips and high-bandwidth memory shortages are pushing memory makers to adopt more advanced processes.
• Installed-base revenue from upgrades, maintenance and services reached EUR 2.8 billion and management expects that recurring business to grow by more than 30% this year, which supports margins even if new-equipment sales swing.
• ASML is developing next-generation High-NA EUV and has begun limited customer use cases, for example Intel’s use on an 18A process, but commercial economics and broad adoption remain unproven.
• The stock trades at a premium valuation near 28.9x forward earnings and faces clear downside risks from semiconductor cyclicality and export controls that could limit sales to China, which management expects to account for roughly one-fifth of 2026 sales.